South Africa, Kenya, the West Indies, New Zealand and Sri Lanka will all be praying the rain gods spare their remaining matches in Pool B because if any of them suffer uncompleted games their chances of making the Super Six will be gone, unless the
Lynn McConnell and Ralph Dellor28-Feb-2003South Africa, Kenya, the West Indies, New Zealand and Sri Lanka will all be praying the rain gods spare their remaining matches in Pool B because if any of them suffer uncompleted games their chances of making the Super Six will be gone, unless the rains affect more than one match.As it stands at the moment, the West Indies needed to beat Sri Lankaafter their rain affected match against Bangladesh. The West Indies last match is against Kenya and they should be too strong for them, despite all that has happened in this tournament – and what happened when these two sides met in 1996. If they beat Kenya it would leave the West Indies on 14 points.Should Sri Lanka win against South Africa they would end on 20 points and finish at the top of the group. That would mean South Africa would be left on 12 points. If Sri Lanka lose to South Africa they would finish on 16 points.The best New Zealand could do is finish on 16 points – whether that isenough depends on Sri Lanka’s fortunes, and whether Kenya can beatBangladesh.South Africa, quite simply need to beat Sri Lanka to keep their chancesalive. But South Africa would have to hope that Bangladesh had beaten Kenya, because if South Africa, Kenya and New Zealand ended on 16 points, and Sri Lanka, having beaten the West Indies to also be on 16, South Africa would go through, and it would be left to Kenya, New Zealand and Sri Lanka to contest the final two positions.The competition rules state: “When more than two teams have equal points and equal wins, the team which was the winner of most number of matches played between those teams will be placed in the higher position.If still equal, the team with the higher net run rate in the group matches will be placed in the higher position.If still equal, the team with the higher number of wickets taken per balls bowled in the group matches in which results were achieved will be placed in the higher position.”So, in effect, a mini-league would come into operation with results between the relevant teams the deciding factor. Then, should teams still be equal, it would come down to run rate, followed by wicket-taking rate. If teams cannot be separated in any other way, the ICC has made an allowance for lots to be drawn.And then there is the damage that rain could do.Pool A is a little more straightforward, but not by much.Australia are guaranteed a place in the Super Six by virtue of having 20 points already. However, India could also finish on 20 points if they beat Pakistan in their final group match.India have 16 points at the moment, while England could also reach 16 points if they beat Australia. The interesting thing from England’s point of view, however, is that England could beat Australia and still go out of the tournament, or lose and make progress to the Super Six. Their fate is in the hands of others.England, India, Pakistan and Zimbabwe all retain an interest in those two places alongside Australia, for all can get to the 16-point mark.Remember, if just two teams finish level on points, the number of wins is the first deciding factor, then the result between the two teams concerned. It is only when more than two teams finish level on points and they have all beaten one another that run rate comes into play.Even run rate is not a simple calculation. It is not a case of merely dividing the runs scored by the overs taken to accumulate them. It is the average number of runs per over scored, less the average number of runs per over conceded that produces a net run rate.And then there is the added complication that if a side is bowled out inside its full allocation of overs, the run rate for the batting side’s innings is calculated as if all the overs had been bowled. On the other hand, the bowling side takes only the actual number of overs bowled when calculating the run rate conceded.To get back to the possible permutations, if Zimbabwe beat Pakistan, they move to 16 points. If Pakistan beat Zimbabwe and India, they move to 16 points. If England find themselves level on points with either India or Zimbabwe for the last qualifying place, England go out on the basis that they lost to both in the group matches. If level on points with Pakistan, having both had the same number of wins, England go through having won the match between the two sides.The form line for the remaining matches suggests that Australia will beat England and India will beat Pakistan. However, this is a match that involves far more than just the allocation of points and it would be difficult to make a conclusive comparison on form alone, but it would make the Zimbabwe v Pakistan fixture extremely interesting.If this form has prevailed right through to the very last of the group matches, Zimbabwe would go into the game with 12 points and Pakistan with eight. England would have 12,India 20 and Australia 24. A Pakistan win would move them onto 12 alongside England and Zimbabwe with all sides having the same number of wins and having beaten each other. The run rate comes into effect.And, as we said about Pool B, it would only take a little bit of rain to throw the whole equation into confusion. Or perhaps that should read “even more confusion.”